DAILY NEWS for
Wednesday November 26 2008

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas -- unfortunately for showbiz.

The holiday shopping season that kicks off on Black Friday is likely to provide a fitting cap to a tumultuous year, with retail analysts predicting the worst showing in several decades.

Accounting and consulting firm BDO Seidman last week released a poll of execs taken after the economic meltdown began. It projects a 3% drop in overall holiday sales and anemic 1% growth on Black Friday compared with 8% growth a year ago.

Bright spots through New Year's should include movie box office, Broadway grosses and cable TV ratings. The biz has coped with recessions before, but the longer ancillary tentacles of the entertainment sector have amplified its vulnerability to the traditional retail cash register.

Best Buy, one of the big-box chains that have come to define retail sales for showbiz, sounded the alarm earlier this month by radically lowering its financial forecasts. Chief exec Brad Anderson cited "seismic" changes in consumer behavior that had created "the most difficult climate" the company had ever seen.

That means tough sledding for electronics (including Blu-ray players, vidgame consoles and home theater components) at Best Buy, which is striking given that its nearest competitor, Circuit City, just declared bankruptcy.

Borders Group and Barnes & Noble have also noted single-digit percentage drops in monthly sales this fall as book browsing slows. Broadway theaters are trying to forestall any audience erosion by touting more discounts earlier in the season, though most don't take effect until after the new year.

Black Friday always is a nail-biter for homevideo and vidgames, which rely on the holiday shopping season for a hefty portion of their annual coin. This year, however, stakes are even higher given the uncertainty surrounding Blu-ray: Execs are hoping that low player prices will drive purchases and help the high-def format take off at last.

The big question is whether these prices will entice converts in a roiling retail climate. Blu-ray player prices will certainly reach new lows on Black Friday: Wal-Mart will be selling a Magnavox Blu-ray player below $130, while rival mass merchant K-Mart is selling a Sony Blu-ray machine for $179. Mass merchants have also steeply discounted Blu-ray discs to entice shoppers during the official kickoff to the holiday gift-buying frenzy.

ALSO ON SITE

MOVIE REVIEWS of all the TOP FILMS

Twilight dir. Catherine Hardwicke Starring Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson	Changeling dir. Clint Eastwood Starring Angelina Jolie John Malkovich	Bolt dir. Byron Howard Chris Williams Voiced by John Travolta Miley Cyrus

Quantum of Solace dir. Marc Forster Starring Daniel Craig Judi Dench	BOX OFFICE RESULTS Daily and Weekend Results at the Domestic Box Office	The Duchess dir. Saul Dibb Starring Keira Knightley Ralph Fiennes

Soul Men dir. Malcolm D. Lee Starring Bernie Mac Samuel L. Jackson	Madagascar 2 dir. Eric Darnell Tom McGrath Voices by Ben Stiller Chris Rock	Role Models dir. David Wain Starring Paul Rudd Seann William Scott

Synecdoche, New York dir. Charlie Kaufman Starring Philip Seymour Hoffman Samantha Morton	What Just Happened dir. Barry Levinson Starring Robert DeNiro Sean Penn Bruce Willis	RocknRolla dir. Guy Ritchie Starring Gerald Butler Tom Wilkinson

PAUL SCHRADER HEADED TO INDIA TO MAKE FILMS

Calling Hollywood, "a barren, barren place -- in terms of the financial community, in terms of audiences, in terms of distribution," writer-director Paul Schrader is pulling up stakes and heading for India, where he says he plans to write and direct his next film.

In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, Schrader, whose films include Taxi Driver, Raging Bull (as a writer) and Affliction and the upcoming Adam Resurrected (as a writer-director), said his new film, Extreme City, is an action-adventure film that will be spoken in English and Hindi.

He indicated that he intends to remain there. "Old Bollywood will never go away," he told the Reporter, "but it's changing. Movies can be shorter than two hours. There doesn't need to be singing and dancing."

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