Some of the biggest hits in syndication history are seeing double-digit ratings declines this year. "The Jerry Springer Show" is off 25%, and "Live With Regis and Kelly" is down 13%. Even "The Oprah Winfrey Show" hasn't been spared the erosion.
All of which has made for an interesting question: Just what life is there left in the business, and in its flagship conference, NATPE?
With declining ad sales, even the highest-profile new contenders are likely to enter the conference without a guarantee that they actually will make it to air next fall. In years past, a show like "T.D. Jakes," from Dr. Phil McGraw's production company, would have looked like a go. Not so this year.
A model for what lies ahead may be "The Tyra Banks Show," which was moved to the CW and is seeing its output scaled way back.
"It's not Roger King's world anymore," notes one longtime industry observer, referring to the late King World impresario. "The days of the big wheeler-dealer don't exist anymore."
These days, however, syndie's troubles seem to transcend those of a once-colorful business losing some of its luster.
With TV advertising cratering along with the rest of the global economy, their station constituents feeling too much pain right now to pony up for big licensing fees and ratings continuing to spiral, the syndication business may be reaching a tipping point.
"What you're going to see this year is not a lot of new shows, and what happens next year will be very telling," says one syndie division topper.
With a healthy slate of national advertising commitments made for the 2008-09 season during last spring's upfront, and drawing from a relatively recession-proof base of packaged goods brands as opposed to, say, automakers or financial companies, syndicators say they've yet to feel an acute ad-dollar crunch themselves.
FOUR CHRISTMASES WINS AGAIN
Even with moviegoers relaxing from the Thanksgiving holiday stretch, Warner Bros. Four Christmases managed to take the top spot in its second Friday with $5.8 million.
Post holiday auds also had a strong appetite for specialty titles with Sony's Cadillac Records bowing in the top 10 with $1.2 million and Universal's Frost/Nixon boasting the day's highest theater average with $16,572.
Reaping $50,000 from three locations in New York, Los Angeles and Toronto, Frost/Nixon could wind up rivaling the boffo opening weekend theater average of Focus Features' Milk ($40,385).
Frost/Nixon was helmed by Ron Howard and is the cinematic take on Peter Morgan's play about the intense television interview between Blighty talk show host David Frost and President Richard Nixon. Morgan also penned the screenplay.
Along with Christmases, the four carryovers that led last Friday's top five Summit's Twilight, Disney's Bolt, Fox's Australia and MGM-Sony's Quantum of Solace -- outstripped yesterday's sole wide release, Lionsgate's Marvel superhero title Punisher: War Zone which ranked eighth with an estimated $1.63 million off 2,508.
War Zone is the third Punisher film to be produced about the vigilante character Frank Castle after the 1989 straight-to-video version and Lionsgate's 2004 redux which respectively toplined Dolph Lundgren and Thomas Jane in the title role. The 2004 Punisher grosssed $5.2 million on its first day and cumed $13.8 million in its opening weekend. Ray Stevenson of HBO's Rome plays Castle in War Zone.
CLASSIC FILMS
BY GENRE
Australia
Quantum of Solace
Milk
The Secret Life of Bees
Transporter 3
City of Ember
Four Christmases
Twilight
Bolt
Madagascar 2
BOX OFFICE
The Duchess
